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Algeria Holds the Keys to Escalation Against France: Escalation Benefits Algeria More Than France
Prepared by researcher Hassouni Mohamed Abdelghani
Following the decision of the Élysée to respond to Algeria by expelling 12 employees from the Algerian consular network in France and recalling the Algerian ambassador Rhamati for consultations, it has become clear that Algeria holds the keys to escalation against France. While France thought this step might destabilize Algeria or pressure it, the situation has clearly tilted in Algeria's favor. Escalation has become more beneficial to Algeria than it is to France, and it seems that the balance of relations between the two countries is clearly in Algeria’s favor in this diplomatic confrontation.
Among the cards Algeria holds in this context, the energy card stands out in particular. Amid the European gas crisis, Algeria plays a central role in supplying European markets with natural gas, making it a key player in this vital sector. This situation allows Algeria to influence the economies of European countries, including France, and gives it a strong leverage that it can use to its advantage in any upcoming negotiations. This strengthens Algeria’s position, as France is facing a difficult reality in light of this crisis, which has made Algeria an indispensable partner in the energy sector.
Additionally, Algeria has the ability to disrupt major French investments or drive some French companies to bankruptcy "with the stroke of a pen." This economic card puts France in a precarious position, as Algeria can make firm decisions that could significantly impact major French companies operating in Algeria. This poses a real threat to France, which has long considered Algeria an important market for its economy. The threat to reduce or stop economic cooperation could have serious consequences for France, which finds itself in a difficult situation.
On the international front, Algeria has expanded its network of partnerships with major countries such as the United States, which has expressed a desire to strengthen ties with Algeria in various fields. This enhances Algeria's ability to maneuver on the international stage, where it now has strategic relations with major countries that could exert pressure on behalf of Algeria in the face of French pressures. Moreover, Algeria’s historical and strategic relations with Russia, despite what has been said recently about this relationship in the Sahel region, remain a strong card for Algeria. These international partnerships offer Algeria multiple options outside the French sphere of influence, giving it considerable maneuverability in its regional and international policies.
Furthermore, Algeria plays an essential role in the Chinese "Belt and Road" initiative in North Africa, further strengthening its position in this global context. Bilateral relations between Algeria and other European countries also provide it with additional flexibility to act more freely, away from dependence on France. Therefore, Algeria can rely on these growing relationships to bolster its position in any negotiations with France or in the face of any escalation that may be undertaken by Paris.
However, the most powerful card in Algeria’s hand could be the colonial memory issue. Every time tensions between the two countries rise, Algeria revives this issue in all international forums, which places France in an embarrassing position and puts it under pressure, especially with Algeria preparing to present a law criminalizing colonialism, which is awaiting a vote in Parliament. This card represents a continuous challenge for France, as it cannot ignore it and must constantly respond, further complicating its relations with Algeria.
Moreover, Algeria plays a pivotal role in migration and security issues in the Sahel region, making it an indispensable partner for European countries, especially given the security instability in this region. Algeria is considered a key player in stabilizing the region, which allows it to maintain an important strategic position, enabling it to influence European decisions on these matters.
Given these factors, it seems that escalation no longer bothers Algeria as much as it serves it. The more tensions between the two countries rise, the more Algeria gains strength in redrawing the equation of an unequal relationship that has lasted for decades. Therefore, Algeria today seems more capable of defending its interests and sovereignty, while France finds itself facing greater challenges than ever before.
Prepared by researcher Hassouni Mohamed Abdelghani
Following the decision of the Élysée to respond to Algeria by expelling 12 employees from the Algerian consular network in France and recalling the Algerian ambassador Rhamati for consultations, it has become clear that Algeria holds the keys to escalation against France. While France thought this step might destabilize Algeria or pressure it, the situation has clearly tilted in Algeria's favor. Escalation has become more beneficial to Algeria than it is to France, and it seems that the balance of relations between the two countries is clearly in Algeria’s favor in this diplomatic confrontation.
Among the cards Algeria holds in this context, the energy card stands out in particular. Amid the European gas crisis, Algeria plays a central role in supplying European markets with natural gas, making it a key player in this vital sector. This situation allows Algeria to influence the economies of European countries, including France, and gives it a strong leverage that it can use to its advantage in any upcoming negotiations. This strengthens Algeria’s position, as France is facing a difficult reality in light of this crisis, which has made Algeria an indispensable partner in the energy sector.
Additionally, Algeria has the ability to disrupt major French investments or drive some French companies to bankruptcy "with the stroke of a pen." This economic card puts France in a precarious position, as Algeria can make firm decisions that could significantly impact major French companies operating in Algeria. This poses a real threat to France, which has long considered Algeria an important market for its economy. The threat to reduce or stop economic cooperation could have serious consequences for France, which finds itself in a difficult situation.
On the international front, Algeria has expanded its network of partnerships with major countries such as the United States, which has expressed a desire to strengthen ties with Algeria in various fields. This enhances Algeria's ability to maneuver on the international stage, where it now has strategic relations with major countries that could exert pressure on behalf of Algeria in the face of French pressures. Moreover, Algeria’s historical and strategic relations with Russia, despite what has been said recently about this relationship in the Sahel region, remain a strong card for Algeria. These international partnerships offer Algeria multiple options outside the French sphere of influence, giving it considerable maneuverability in its regional and international policies.
Furthermore, Algeria plays an essential role in the Chinese "Belt and Road" initiative in North Africa, further strengthening its position in this global context. Bilateral relations between Algeria and other European countries also provide it with additional flexibility to act more freely, away from dependence on France. Therefore, Algeria can rely on these growing relationships to bolster its position in any negotiations with France or in the face of any escalation that may be undertaken by Paris.
However, the most powerful card in Algeria’s hand could be the colonial memory issue. Every time tensions between the two countries rise, Algeria revives this issue in all international forums, which places France in an embarrassing position and puts it under pressure, especially with Algeria preparing to present a law criminalizing colonialism, which is awaiting a vote in Parliament. This card represents a continuous challenge for France, as it cannot ignore it and must constantly respond, further complicating its relations with Algeria.
Moreover, Algeria plays a pivotal role in migration and security issues in the Sahel region, making it an indispensable partner for European countries, especially given the security instability in this region. Algeria is considered a key player in stabilizing the region, which allows it to maintain an important strategic position, enabling it to influence European decisions on these matters.
Given these factors, it seems that escalation no longer bothers Algeria as much as it serves it. The more tensions between the two countries rise, the more Algeria gains strength in redrawing the equation of an unequal relationship that has lasted for decades. Therefore, Algeria today seems more capable of defending its interests and sovereignty, while France finds itself facing greater challenges than ever before.